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The Shock of the Medieval Warming Period (950-1025)

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One of the most interesting episodes during the  Middle Ages  was the  Medieval Warm Period , sometimes called  Crisis of the Late Middle Ages   ( demographic collapse ,  political instability , and religious upheaval) . An important question is what we see in the data (from the Maddison Project ). Some agreement with the historical record helps us have confidence in the  W_MA Model  and the data it was based on.  The data from the  W_MA Model   measurement matrix is presented above. Three state-space components explain 100% of the variation in the underlying indicators (Global Temperature, World Production and Population). Notes There are three versions of the W_MA BAU model: Unstable, Stable and Random Walk.  Instructions are available in the  R-code  for running the three  BAU  models ( here ). W_MA Measurement Matrix The W_MA (Middle Ages) Measurement Model has two historical controllers and one growth...
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How Well Does the Data Capture the Middle Ages Timeline?

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Why should we study the Middle Ages? Because we seem to be approaching a Post-Capitalist World and one vision for that World is TechoFeudalism . The graphic above situates the Middle Ages ( MA 500-1500 ) in the sweep of Modern History (0-2000). The MA itself covers both the Dark Ages (500-1000, a deprecated term) and Feudalism  (750-1500). Prior to the MA was the Roman Empire (0-500) and after was Capitalism (1500-2000).  In terms of data from the World System Model (0-2000) , the Long Duree , the first component state variable ( W_Q =Overall Growth), the Takeoff  didn't happen until the 19th Century , after British Capitalism . By comparison, the Middle Ages was basically a stagnate period. One question we might have about the data on which these conclusions are based (from the Maddison Project ) is how well the data track well-know events in the Timeline of the Middle Ages (see below). Notes Wallerstein, I. (2003)  The Decline of American Power: the U.S....
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