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Western Europe in the Middle Ages: Demographic Transition

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  Notes Galor, Oded (2011).  Unified Growth Theory . Princeton: Princeton University Press.   Boulding, K. (1955)  The Malthusian Model as a General System The Malthusian Controller (Q-N) System Theoretic interpretation of the Malthusian Model. For more information about data sources how the state space models were estimated  see the  Boiler Plate . You can run the  WE_MA BAU Model  on my Google Site  here . Instructions in the  R-code  explain how to modify the model.   You can run the  W_MA BAU Model  on my Google Site  here . Instructions in the  R-code  explain how to modify the model. Wikipedia WE_MA Measurement Model The  Western European Middle Ages  WE_MA BAU Model   has three component state variables that explain 100% of the variation in the indicators. The first component is WE1 = (Overall Growth). The second component is WE2 = (Q-U) an Urban-Production Controller. The ...
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What If We Slid Back Into the Middle Ages?

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  May 17, 2026 Katya Ungerman writes in the NY Times that  We Are Sliding Back Into the Middle Ages . People are giving up on Science, embracing the existence of the Supernatural and worrying about demonic possession. My first thought was "what was driving society in the Middle Ages (500-1500) and what similar drivers can we see in the present (a hard question to answer)"? My second thought was "what does Systems Theory have to say about the Social System in the Middle Ages compared to the present (an easier question)"? The Middle Ages were a period of "muddling through" ( Random Walk ) trying to find an attractor path for the Industrial Revolution. The British found it first (see the Boiler Plate ). The  W_MA Model  was estimated from the Maddison Project data set. Three versions of the model are available in R-code on my Google site ( here ): A Business-As-Usual ( BAU ) model, A Random Walk ( RW ) Model and a Stabilized BAU Model (instructions i...
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Technology Long Waves

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   The  Kondratiev Wave  is an important element of  World-Systems Theory . The graphic above is taken from  Andreas Goldschmidt  and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the  Solow-Swan Model ) and I can present some examples. The Iranian Economy prior to 1979  and associated  Tech Bubble .
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About

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There has been renewed interest in the  Middle Ages  because of parallels to events in the present:  History of Science  and  Antiscience , the   Black Death  and the  COVID-19 Pandemic ,  Feudalism  and   Neo-Feudalism   (Techno-Feudalism),  Dark Ages  and  Societal Collapse , the   Hundred Year's War  and  Perpetual War ,  Late Capitalism  and   Crisis of the Late Middle Ages ,  Ecosystem Collapse  and  Medieval Warm Period  to the Little Ice Age ,    etc., etc. This blog is devoted to State Space models of the  Middle Ages . See the Boiler Plate for descriptions of data sources, how the models were constructed (estimated) and periodization. The Malthusian Model and Unified Growth Theory provide important theoretical explanations for the Middle Ages. Below are links for relevant Wikipedia pages on the  Middle Ages  and references. Ref...
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