This blog is devoted to State Space models of the Middle Ages. See the Boiler Plate for descriptions of data sources, how the models were constructed (estimated) and periodization.
Late Middle AgesAround 1350, centuries of prosperity and growth in Europe came to a halt. A series of famines and plagues, including the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the Black Death, reduced the population to around half of what it had been before the calamities. Along with depopulation came social unrest and endemic warfare.
COVID-19 Pandemiccaused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It spread to other parts of Asia and then worldwide in early 2020.
Feudalisma combination of various customs and systems that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries. Broadly defined, it was a way of structuring society around relationships derived from the holding of land in exchange for service or labour.
Neo-Feudalisma theorized contemporary rebirth of policies of governance, economy, and public life, reminiscent of those which were present in many feudal societies. Such aspects include, but are not limited to: Unequal rights and legal protections for common people and for nobility, dominance of societies by a small and powerful elite, a lack of social mobility, and relations of lordship and serfdom between the elite and the people, where the former are rich and the latter poor.
Common Misconceptions About the Middle Ages State fragmentation and competition characterized much of the history of medieval Western Europe, and that trend would remain true for a long period of history afterwards.
Medieval TechnologyAfter the Renaissance of the 12th century, medieval Europe saw a radical change in the rate of new inventions, innovations in the ways of managing traditional means of production, and economic growth.
Perpetual Warendless war or forever war is a lasting state of war with no clear conditions that would lead to its conclusion. These wars are usually situations of ongoing tension that may escalate at any moment, similar to the Cold War.
Medieval Warm Periodalso known as the Medieval Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that lasted from about 950 CE to about 1250 CE.
Little Ice Agea period of regional cooling, particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic region from the 16th to the 19th centuries.
May 17, 2026 Katya Ungerman writes in the NY Times that We Are Sliding Back Into the Middle Ages . People are giving up on Science, embracing the existence of the Supernatural and worrying about demonic possession. My first thought was "what was driving society in the Middle Ages (500-1500) and what similar drivers can we see in the present (a hard question to answer)"? My second thought was "what does Systems Theory have to say about the Social System in the Middle Ages compared to the present (an easier question)"? The Middle Ages were a period of "muddling through" ( Random Walk ) trying to find an attractor path for the Industrial Revolution. The British found it first (see the Boiler Plate ). The W_MA Model was estimated from the Maddison Project data set. Three versions of the model are available in R-code on my Google site ( here ): A Business-As-Usual ( BAU ) model, A Random Walk ( RW ) Model and a Stabilized BAU Model (instructions i...
State Space Model Estimation The Measurement Matrix for the state space models was constructed using Principal Components Analysis with standardized data from the World Development Indicators . The statistical analysis was conducted using an extension of the dse package . The package is currently supported by an online portal ( here ) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer here . Code for the state space Dynamic Component models (DCMs) is available on my Google drive ( here ) and referenced in each post. Atlanta Fed Economy Now My approach to forecasting is similar to the EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve . Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future. While the app is still available, there have been some interesting developm...
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