What If We Slid Back Into the Middle Ages?
May 17, 2026 Katya Ungerman writes in the NY Times that We Are Sliding Back Into the Middle Ages. People are giving up on Science, embracing the existence of the Supernatural and worrying about demonic possession. My first thought was "what was driving society in the Middle Ages (500-1500) and what similar drivers can we see in the present (a hard question to answer)"? My second thought was "what does Systems Theory have to say about the Social System in the Middle Ages compared to the present (an easier question)"?
The Middle Ages were a period of "muddling through" (Random Walk) trying to find an attractor path for the Industrial Revolution. The British found it first (see the Boiler Plate).
The W_MA Model was estimated from the Maddison Project data set. Three versions of the model are available in R-code on my Google site (here): A Business-As-Usual (BAU) model, A Random Walk (RW) Model and a Stabilized BAU Model (instructions in the code explain how to run the models).
The result of running the BAU model is presented in the graphic above. The Malthusian Temperature Controller W1=(T-Q-N) increased over the Medieval Warm Period. The overall Growth component W2=(T+Q+N) also increased. However, the increase in Temperature and Population created a Malthusian Crisis W3=(Q-N-T) around 575 that recovered slowly until 1500.
The BAU model is not the best model for the Middle Ages. Using AIC statistics (below), the Random Walk (RW) (AIC=-30,860.00) is by far the best model and there is no attractor path for a RW.
Presented above are four runs of the RW Model (see the System Matrix below). Anything from Growth-and-Collapse to Steady State were possible. The Malthusian Crisis around 575 may have helped turn the focus to Feudalism and eventually to Capitalism.
What do these results say about the present? We are in the Late Stages of Capitalism-- World War or Ecosystem Collapse could force the World into another period of searching for a new attractor path or a new system Post-Capitalism. The Random Walk may be starting to return and this is what, I believe, Katya Ungerman has identified in her article. If so, the Future cannot be predicted.
Notes
Wallerstein, I. (2003) The Decline of American Power: the U.S. in a Chaotic World.
Galor, Oded (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Boulding, K. (1955) The Malthusian Model as a General System
For more information about data sources how the state space models were estimated see the Boiler Plate.
You can run the W_MA BAU Model on my Google Site here. Instructions in the R-code explain how to modify the model.
Wikipedia
Middle Ages the medieval period lasted approximately from the 5th to late 15th centuries, comparable with the post-classical period of global history.
Crisis of the Late Middle Ages a series of events across Europe during the late Middle Ages. These events involved extensive demographic collapse, political instability, and religious upheaval. Collectively, they marked an end to a centuries-long period of relative stability in Europe, and reshaped regional societies. This crisis period coincides with a shift in the regional climate from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age.
Dark Ages a term, now deprecated by most historians, for the Early Middle Ages (c. 5th–10th centuries), or occasionally the entire Middle Ages (c. 5th–15th centuries), in Western Europe after the fall of the Western Roman Empire, which characterises it as marked by economic, intellectual, and cultural decline.
Nationalism in the Middle Ages Several scholars of nationalism support the existence of nationalism in the Middle Ages, mainly in Europe.
Christianity in the Middle Ages the history of Christianity from the fall of the Western Roman Empire (c. 476). The end of the period is variously defined - depending on the context, events such as the conquest of Constantinople by the Ottoman Empire in 1453, Christopher Columbus's first voyage to the Americas in 1492, or the Protestant Reformation in 1517 are sometimes used.
History of Science Protoscience, early sciences, and natural philosophies such as alchemy and astrology that existed during the Bronze Age, Iron Age, classical antiquity and the Middle Ages, declined after the emergence of modern sciences during the Scientific Revolution.
High Middle Ages Key historical trends of the High Middle Ages include the rapidly increasing population of Europe, which brought about great social and political change from the preceding era, and the Renaissance of the 12th century, including the first developments of the rural exodus and urbanization.
Late Middle Ages Around 1350, centuries of prosperity and growth in Europe came to a halt. A series of famines and plagues, including the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the Black Death, reduced the population to around half of what it had been before the calamities. Along with depopulation came social unrest and endemic warfare.
Black Death a plague pandemic that occurred in Europe from 1346 to 1353. It was one of the most fatal pandemics in human history; as many as 50 million people died, perhaps 50% of Europe's 14th-century population. The Black Death was the second great natural disaster to strike Europe during the Late Middle Ages (the first one being the Great Famine of 1315–1317).
Agriculture of the Middle Ages the farming practices, crops, technology, and agricultural society and economy of Europe from the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 to approximately 1500.
Outline of the Middle Ages The Middle Ages follows the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 and precedes the early modern era. It is the middle period of a three-period division of Western history: classic, medieval and modern.
Economic History of the World the development of human economic activity throughout time.
Feudalism a combination of various customs and systems that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries. Broadly defined, it was a way of structuring society around relationships derived from the holding of land in exchange for service or labour.
Capitalism an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and its use for the purpose of obtaining profit.
Late Capitalism the new social order which emerged in the aftermath of World War I.
European Science in the Middle Ages Western Europe would see a period of scientific decline during the Early Middle Ages. However, by the time of the High Middle Ages, the region had rallied and was on its way to once more taking the lead in scientific discovery. Scholarship and scientific discoveries of the Late Middle Ages laid the groundwork for the Scientific Revolution of the post-medieval period.
Common Misconceptions About the Middle Ages State fragmentation and competition characterized much of the history of medieval Western Europe, and that trend would remain true for a long period of history afterwards.
Medieval Medicine in Western Europe following the fall of the Western Roman Empire, standard medical knowledge was based chiefly upon surviving Greek and Roman texts, preserved in monasteries and elsewhere.
Western Europe The concept of "the West" appeared in Europe in juxtaposition to "the East" and originally applied to the Western half of the ancient Mediterranean world, the Latin West of the Roman Empire, and "Western Christendom".
Medieval Music the sacred and secular music of Western Europe during the Middle Ages, from approximately the 6th to 15th centuries. It is the first and longest major era of Western classical music and is followed by the Renaissance music.
Medieval Technology After the Renaissance of the 12th century, medieval Europe saw a radical change in the rate of new inventions, innovations in the ways of managing traditional means of production, and economic growth.
Medieval Demography the study of human demography in Europe and the Mediterranean during the Middle Ages.
W_MA Measurement Model
The W_MA Measurement Matrix supports the reasoning of Unified Growth Theory: from Malthusian Stagnation to Demographic Transition and Beyond. However, the W_MA Measurement Matrix adds in a neo-Malthusian indicator: Global Temperature.
W_MA AIC Statistics
The AIC statistics suggest that the Random Walk (RW) is the best model for the Middle Ages.
W_MA BAU System Matrix
W_MA RW System Matrix
The W_MA RW Model system matrix has all the diagonal elements of F set to unity. In a canonical RW model, all the off-diagonal elements are set to zero. In W_MA RW Model, many of the off-diagonal elements are close to zero, but notice F[1,3] and F[2,3], effects of the W3 = (Q - N) a Malthusian Controller.
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