Western Europe in the Middle Ages: Demographic Transition



The State Space model of Western Europe in the Middle Ages (WE_MA Model) is an interesting comparison to the World Model for the same period (W_MA Model). The Western Europe Model has an Economic Growth, Demographic transition and a Malthusian Component while the World Model has a Temperature-Growth Controller and a Malthusian Controller.

In this posting, I look at the Demographic Transition and Malthusian controller in Medieval Western Europe. Typically, these two controllers are not thought to do together.
 






Notes



Galor, Oded (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 


The Malthusian Controller (Q-N) System Theoretic interpretation of the Malthusian Model.


For more information about data sources how the state space models were estimated see the Boiler Plate.

You can run the WE_MA BAU Model on my Google Site here. Instructions in the R-code explain how to modify the model. 

You can run the W_MA BAU Model on my Google Site here. Instructions in the R-code explain how to modify the model.


Wikipedia


WE_MA Measurement Model

The Western European Middle Ages WE_MA BAU Model has three component state variables that explain 100% of the variation in the indicators. The first component is WE1 = (Overall Growth). The second component is WE2 = (Q-U) an Urban-Production Controller. The third component is WE3 = (N-U-Q) an Urban-Malthusian-Population controller. 

WE_MA AIC Statistics


The best short-term (year-to-year) model had Technical Productivity (TECHP) as an input; the model was nonlinear, unstable and cyclical. The best Attractor Path model as the BAU model which was cyclical and unstable (see below). All the AIC statistics (except the W_Input model) had overlapping confidence intervals and were equally good competitors.


WE_MA System Matrix



The WE_MA_BAU System matrix was unstable (in two components, WE1 and WE2) and cyclical. It is actualy very close to a Random Walk. See the WE_MA BAU Model on my Google Site here for instructions on modifying the BAU model to create an RW model.





Video






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About

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There has been renewed interest in the  Middle Ages  because of parallels to events in the present:  History of Science  and  Antiscience , the   Black Death  and the  COVID-19 Pandemic ,  Feudalism  and   Neo-Feudalism   (Techno-Feudalism),  Dark Ages  and  Societal Collapse , the   Hundred Year's War  and  Perpetual War ,  Late Capitalism  and   Crisis of the Late Middle Ages ,  Ecosystem Collapse  and  Medieval Warm Period  to the Little Ice Age , the Rise of Islam and    etc., etc. This blog is devoted to State Space models of the  Middle Ages . See the Boiler Plate for descriptions of data sources, how the models were constructed (estimated) and periodization. The Malthusian Model and Unified Growth Theory provide important theoretical explanations for the Middle Ages. Below are links for relevant Wikipedia pages on the  Middle Ages ...
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