The Shock of the Medieval Warming Period (950-1025)

One of the most interesting episodes during the Middle Ages was the Medieval Warm Period, sometimes called Crisis of the Late Middle Ages (demographic collapse, political instability, and religious upheaval). An important question is what we see in the data (from the Maddison Project). Some agreement with the historical record helps us have confidence in the W_MA Model and the data it was based on. 

The data from the W_MA Model measurement matrix is presented above. Three state-space components explain 100% of the variation in the underlying indicators (Global Temperature, World Production and Population).

Notes

There are three versions of the W_MA BAU model: Unstable, Stable and Random Walk. Instructions are available in the R-code for running the three BAU models (here).

W_MA Measurement Matrix

The W_MA (Middle Ages) Measurement Model has two historical controllers and one growth component: W1=(T-Q-N) A Malthusian Global Temperature Controller, the dominant component explained 69.4% of the variation in the three indicators. W2=(Growth) explaining 30% of the variation and W3=(Q-N-T) a pure Malthusian component explaining under 1% of the variation. For more information about how the Measurement Matrix was constructed using Principal Components Analysis, see the Boiler Plate.

W_MA AIC Statistics

Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best model is a Random Walk (RW). Instructions are available in the R-code for converting the BAU model to an RW Model (here).

W_MA BAU System Matrix

The W_MA BAU System Matrix is unstable.The primary sources of instability are the Malthusian Global Temperature Controller (W1=(T-Q-N) and the growth component (W2).

W1_MA Time Plot

In the Long Duree, the W1_MA Time Plot shows very little growth. The secondary components (at the beginning of this post) capture more of the History of the Middle Ages.

Wikipedia

Middle Ages the medieval period lasted approximately from the 5th to late 15th centuries, comparable with the post-classical period of global history. 

Crisis of the Late Middle Ages  a series of events across Europe during the late Middle Ages. These events involved extensive demographic collapse, political instability, and religious upheaval. Collectively, they marked an end to a centuries-long period of relative stability in Europe, and reshaped regional societies. This crisis period coincides with a shift in the regional climate from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age.

Dark Ages a term, now deprecated by most historians, for the Early Middle Ages (c. 5th–10th centuries), or occasionally the entire Middle Ages (c. 5th–15th centuries), in Western Europe after the fall of the Western Roman Empire, which characteristics it as marked by economic, intellectual, and cultural decline.

Nationalism in the Middle Ages Several scholars of nationalism support the existence of nationalism in the Middle Ages, mainly in Europe.

Christianity in the Middle Ages the history of Christianity from the fall of the Western Roman Empire (c. 476). The end of the period is variously defined - depending on the context, events such as the conquest of Constantinople by the Ottoman Empire in 1453, Christopher Columbus's first voyage to the Americas in 1492, or the Protestant Reformation in 1517 are sometimes used.

History of Science  Protoscience, early sciences, and natural philosophies such as alchemy and astrology that existed during the Bronze Age, Iron Age, classical antiquity and the Middle Ages, declined after the emergence of modern sciences during the Scientific Revolution.

High Middle Ages Key historical trends of the High Middle Ages include the rapidly increasing population of Europe, which brought about great social and political change from the preceding era, and the Renaissance of the 12th century, including the first developments of the rural exodus and urbanization. 

Late Middle Ages Around 1350, centuries of prosperity and growth in Europe came to a halt. A series of famines and plagues, including the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the Black Death, reduced the population to around half of what it had been before the calamities. Along with depopulation came social unrest and endemic warfare.

Black Death a plague pandemic that occurred in Europe from 1346 to 1353. It was one of the most fatal pandemics in human history; as many as 50 million people died, perhaps 50% of Europe's 14th-century population. The Black Death was the second great natural disaster to strike Europe during the Late Middle Ages (the first one being the Great Famine of 1315–1317).

Agriculture of the Middle Ages the farming practices, crops, technology, and agricultural society and economy of Europe from the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 to approximately 1500.

Outline of the Middle Ages The Middle Ages follows the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 and precedes the early modern era. It is the middle period of a three-period division of Western history: classic, medieval and modern.

Economic History of the World  the development of human economic activity throughout time. 

Feudalism a combination of various customs and systems that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries. Broadly defined, it was a way of structuring society around relationships derived from the holding of land in exchange for service or labour.

Manorialism the method of land ownership (or "tenure") in parts of Europe, notably France and later England, during the Middle Ages.

Capitalism an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and its use for the purpose of obtaining profit.

Late Capitalism the new social order which emerged in the aftermath of World War I.

European Science in the Middle Ages Western Europe would see a period of scientific decline during the Early Middle Ages. However, by the time of the High Middle Ages, the region had rallied and was on its way to once more taking the lead in scientific discovery. Scholarship and scientific discoveries of the Late Middle Ages laid the groundwork for the Scientific Revolution of the post-medieval period.

Common Misconceptions About the Middle Ages  State fragmentation and competition characterized much of the history of medieval Western Europe, and that trend would remain true for a long period of history afterwards.

Medieval Medicine in Western Europe following the fall of the Western Roman Empire, standard medical knowledge was based chiefly upon surviving Greek and Roman texts, preserved in monasteries and elsewhere.

Western Europe The concept of "the West" appeared in Europe in juxtaposition to "the East" and originally applied to the Western half of the ancient Mediterranean world, the Latin West of the Roman Empire, and "Western Christendom". 

Medieval Music the sacred and secular music of Western Europe during the Middle Ages, from approximately the 6th to 15th centuries. It is the first and longest major era of Western classical music and is followed by the Renaissance music.

Medieval Technology After the Renaissance of the 12th century, medieval Europe saw a radical change in the rate of new inventions, innovations in the ways of managing traditional means of production, and economic growth.

Medieval Demography  the study of human demography in Europe and the Mediterranean during the Middle Ages.